Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 11.194204 13.090048 15.162884 17.591347 20.351999 23.386064 26.966203
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.691693 10.118005 13.042670 16.799722 21.467031 27.041280 34.165777
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.579706 8.149442 11.523033 16.211202 22.481719 30.494535 41.408475
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.394900 7.036690 10.770896 16.317606 24.205386 34.855091 50.118401
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.454422 6.025141 9.914399 16.049236 25.260316 38.307968 57.844939
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.002843 5.638043 9.862138 16.868759 27.870204 44.073580 69.204068
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.546683 5.136176 9.523924 17.156615 29.652147 48.729884 79.283602
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.142765 4.633560 9.086041 17.189587 30.986115 52.764914 88.689403
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.817271 4.203033 8.691178 17.214948 32.265750 56.765952 98.283547
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.711113 4.179638 9.018196 18.523872 35.796929 64.596668 114.429531
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.564828 4.041465 9.101954 19.386486 38.614492 71.439514 129.409630
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.415890 3.865709 9.081173 20.037856 41.095332 77.868799 144.092480
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.197562 3.492840 8.621228 19.818824 42.034708 81.851814 155.166133
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.969743 3.042126 7.923100 19.032858 41.834500 83.838497 163.002478
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.793498 2.676091 7.345526 18.410838 41.871714 86.232532 171.697810
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.690904 2.483321 7.133807 18.542847 43.411612 91.482735 185.823083
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.581888 2.240544 6.756149 18.247745 44.033620 95.033463 197.051669
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.544074 2.206595 6.898304 19.165906 47.284734 103.835403 218.534410
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.485358 2.088007 6.797282 19.488354 49.270609 110.277658 235.906543
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.423713 1.940632 6.591470 19.525486 50.625031 115.544279 251.318218
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.370182 1.805123 6.393637 19.553935 51.955093 120.837095 267.064613
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.364878 1.851941 6.735464 21.015825 56.697688 133.419062 297.799673
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.344831 1.834728 6.882335 21.978438 60.347872 143.931627 324.923484